How to research a player prop in 5 minutes
Check five things: his role and minutes, his recent games at tonight's exact line, his games against this opponent, what this defense allows to his position, and who is out on both teams. Then ask whether the price matches what you found.
1. Role and minutes
Is he starting? Are his minutes (or ice time, or snaps) steady? A new team or a new role makes old numbers less useful.
2. Recent games at tonight's line
Count his last 5, 10 and 20 games at tonight's exact number, not an average. Averages hide one huge game.
3. This opponent
Look at his games against this team, and at what this defense allows to his position. Small samples, so use it as a tiebreaker.
4. Who's out
A teammate out can raise his usage; an opponent's best defender out can help too. Check the injury report close to game time.
5. The price
Turn the price into a chance (see American odds) and compare it with what you found. If you'd guess 55% and the price implies 62%, it's probably not the bet.
Keep it small
Straight bets and short two- or three-leg parlays keep the book's margin down. Set a budget before the games start. Help is free: ConnexOntario 1-866-531-2600, or 1-800-MY-RESET in the US.
Questions
What matters most?
Role and minutes. A player who plays more gets more chances at every stat.
Where can I see all of this in one place?
PropLab shows each prop with recent games at the line, head-to-head, the defense and who's out, on iPhone and the web.